I basically agree with David Kuo and Rod Dreher that Huckabee’s victory cannot be dismissed as an evangelical fluke – a la Pat Robertson in 1988. Huckabee’s message and style are just too appealing to evaporate over night.
BUT before we get too deep into meta-analysis, we need to remember that an astounding 60% of the Iowa Republican caucus-goers were evangelicals.
I literally can’t think of another state where that will be the case. For instance, many pundits predicted that Huckabee would therefore do well in South Carolina, a Bible-belt state chuck full of evangelicals. But in 2000, the last time there was a contested Republican primary there, 20% of the electorate was “Born again/evangelical.” How about Alabama? More, but there 40% said they were part of the “religious right,” still not as much as Iowa.
Among non-evangelicals (i.e. the people who will now dominate the Republican contests), Huckabee lost to Romney 33% to 14%. Even Fred Thompson beat him among non-evangelicals.