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You couldn’t have more of a status quo vote than McCain and Clinton.

Obama won among people who feel like the economy is doing well and Hillary won among those who disagreed. Obama won among college graduates, Hillary won among those who didnt graduate college. If this pattern persist, Obama will lose. Mondale/Hart. Clinton/Tsongas. Gore/Bradley. Hart, Tsongas and Bradley won the same demographic as Obama. Mondale, Clinton (Billy…

Holy Moly. Evangelicals made up 21% of the New Hampshire Republican voters — and went 32% for Huckabee and 31% for McCain, who was supposedly loathed by religious Christians. Exhibit #838 that we need to recalibrate our understanding of evangelical politics.

Everyone is assuming that Huckabee’s only chance is down south in the Bible belt. But before they get to South Carolina, where he should do well, they hit Michigan. We don’t tend to think of Michigan as an evangelical state but in 2000, 27% of the Republican primary electorate called it self part of the…
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