The tidal wave of “Super Tuesday” has come and gone. What did it leave in its wake?
On the Democratic side, the race between Senators Clinton and Obama tightened rather than clarified. Sen. Obama won more states, but the really big prizes—New York, New Jersey, and California—went to Sen. Clinton. So the race for the Democratic nomination does not end, but continues, perhaps into the summer and maybe even the convention itself. Wow! I’m a “Baby Boomer,” so I can’t remember a national political convention where the nominee was not virtually certain before the convention started. (That is, unless you count watching the 1952 Republican convention on TV while still a toddler sitting on my mother’s lap—and I confess, I have only dim and partial memories of that experience.)
On the Republican side, clarity and closure seem to loom much sooner on the political calendar. Sen. McCain must now be seen as a prohibitive favorite to be the eventual presidential nominee.
Gov. Huckabee, as he often does, greatly exceeded the pundits’ expectations by winning five states—Alabama, Arkasas, Georgia, Tennessee, and West Virginia. Governors Huckabee and Romney, however, are so far behind in delegates that it is difficult to construct a path from the present situation to nomination as the presidential candidate for either of them.
First, why has Gov. Huckabee not garnered more support from self-identified Evangelicals? I have known Gov. Huckabee for almost three decades. He is a fervent, sincere, and dedicated Evangelical who is rock solid on the social issues, which are of highest priority to a significant majority of the evangelical community. Yet, while Gov. Huckabee has received more support from Evangelicals than any of the other candidates in most states, he has not reached 50 percent support from self-identified Evangelicals. Why? Evangelicals are not one-dimensional. While they care overwhelming about the pro-life and marriage issues, many of them are national security “hawks” and many of them are economic conservatives and/or “supply-siders.”
Second, Gov. Romney, while a staunch economic conservative, has not been able to convince significant numbers of Evangelicals of the sincerity of his change to conservatism on the social issues. Most of us who have been fortunate enough to hear him personally relate the story of his change of views find him convincing; but he cannot have a small group discussion with all the Evangelicals in the electorate.
What are Senator McCain’s chances of uniting the Reagan coalition in the fall if he, as expected, is the GOP nominee? His prospects are excellent, in spite of what Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, may say. Why? Senator McCain has a reliable, though not spotless, pro-life voting record, and he is a “super hawk” on national security issues.
More important, it is Senator Clinton or Senator Obama (recently named the Senate’s most liberal member by the prestigious and non-partisan National Journal) who will accomplish whatever uniting is necessary. Either one of them will generate a laser-sharp focus of what their respective administrations would mean to conservatives, and Sen. McCain would benefit greatly from that focus.