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City of Brass

A young woman votes in the second runoff of the Iranian Parliamentary elections this past April (via Faith Today). Iran is not our enemy. The reaction from Iranians to Obama’s election has been one of cautious optimism and anticipation: Iranians reacted positively to Barack Obama’s election, saluting the choice of the American people in breaking…

First, let’s see how I fared – my Electoral College prediction of 310 EVs for Obama was obviously on the pessimistic side. Still, I called this election for Obama last Friday, so for me it was never a question of whether Obama would win, but only by how much. I was overly generous in giving…

Word cloud from Wordle.net of President-elect Barack Obama’s victory speech at Grant Park, Chicago, on November 4th 2008. This is history.

It is now 9PM EST and polls have closed in the critical states IN,VA, GA, FL, OH, NC, PA, MO, and CO (among others). VA is neck and neck, NC is marginally Obama and IN is marginally McCain. GA has been called for McCain, OH and PA are projected Obama, and CO and MO are too early to tell. With the above,…

Polls just closed in Indiana. Results will be posted to the Indiana Secretary of State’s website. Manically refresh that page starting now…

Voting began in New Hampshire as early as midnight last night, so it’s not surprising that the earliest results are already in. In Coos County, Barack Obama leads John McCain 15-6, and in Carroll County Obama is ahead 17-10. So, Obama is ahead statewide 32 votes to 16. Only ~149,999,952 votes left to tally. Gobama!

With one hour to go before the polls close in Indiana and the first returns start trickling in, the  exit polls are already being leaked. Ignore them. Mark Blumenthal notes that there are numerous problems with exit polls, including overstating Democratic support and “refusal bias”. Also, the networks will begin to report “composite” exit polls…

Happy election day! (Some crazy towns in New Hampshire started voting at midnight). Courtesy of Nate Silver’s simulations, here’s how McCain might win. The most plausible (but still improbable) scenario: Obama takes all the Gore and Kerry states, and McCain takes everything else. Everything else in this case includes states like Colorado (9 EV), where…

Reihan Salam, poet-pundit at The American Scene, provides some perspective on today: here’s the thing: America is a strange, diverse, sprawling country, and our elections reflect that fact. There are loyal black Democrats in California who will turn out for Obama and who will also vote yes on Prop 8, a measure that will strip…

In my projection, I gave McCain Nevada by default without really thinking about it. However, looking at the poll trends, it looks clear that Nevada is not even going to be close. Nevada has 5 electoral votes so it won’t make much difference either way. Still, that bumps up my worst-case scenario for Obama from…
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