Faith and hope are playing a big role in this year’s presidential primaries. And, as a person of firm belief in God, I say that this is as it should be.
I know that mine is supposed to be a “spiritual” blog…but (as I have noted here before) Conversations with God says that our politics is our spirituality, demonstrated. I believe that, I accept that, because I see that clearly. The way we vote is the way we feel, and the way we feel is an expression of our most fervently held beliefs. If politics is NOT a demonstration of our deepest beliefs, then politics is bankrupt.
Having said that, let’s take a look at what’s been happening lately…and what is about to happen in the days and weeks ahead.
Barack Obama is making 2008, at the very least, an exciting year — if not the year of absolute political revolution in America.
If you are “into” politics (and even if you’re not) I don’t know how you can help but be caught up in the Democratic Party’s race for convention delegates — now neck and neck — between the Black man from Illinois and the Lady from New York.
I know that you know all this, but maybe you haven’t seen the latest delegate count…According to an Associated Press tally (not counting the results of Sunday’s caucus contests in Maine, where 24 delegates were at stake), Clinton had by Sunday gathered 1,095 delegates to 1,070 for Obama, counting so-called superdelegates. (These are party leaders not chosen at primaries or caucuses. They include past and present elected officials and local party movers and shakers, and these delegates are free to change their minds as to whom they are ‘committed’.)
A total of 2,025 delegates is needed to win the nomination at the national convention, which is scheduled for late August in Denver.
WHAT TO WATCH…Look, Obama is going to win the primaries tomorrow in Maryland, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. I’m going out on a limb with that, because that’s the way it looks from here. (I think Maryland and D.C. are assured. Virginia is going to be tighter, but I believe Obama will win it.)
But those primaries, frankly, don’t matter nearly as much as the contests in two other states — and Hillary Clinton’s people know this. That is why they have been focusing their attention and their campaign resources for quite a while now on Ohio and Texas. If Clinton takes those states (and there is a distinct possibility that she will), she will balloon in the delegate count, and be hard to stop.
Just as she won California by working hard early (Obama’s last-minute efforts there could not erase her many week’s worth of attention to that state), she is poised now to sweep the next two big prizes in Texas and Ohio. Clinton has paid scarce attention to Maryland or D.C. Her people know she doesn’t have the greatest chances there. She’s done a little more work in Virginia, where her advisers believe she may be truly competitive, but her staff has had her focus the bulk of her energy and her organization’s resources, advertising dollars, etc., in Texas and Ohio, whose primaries will be held March 5.
Look at it closely and you will see the differing strategies of the two campaigns. Clinton’s approach from the outset has been…

…to grab the biggest delegate-count states — and so far, she has done so. If she continues on this trend, she will have captured New York, California, Texas, Ohio, and New Jersey, . That’s a pile of delegates, and, added to a few of the smaller states, she’s in.
Obama’s attention and focus (and his victories so far) have been by and large is caucus states (Washington, Iowa, Nebraska, etc., all of which he has won) and smaller delegate-count states (of which he has won more).
He’s hoping to fight Clinton to a virtual “draw” in delegate count by the time the August convention rolls around. This will force the Democratic Party’s Super Delegates to make the choice — and Obama’s people are hoping this does not backfire on them, given the chits that the Clinton Two have out among so many party regular and leaders and elected officials past and present. Obama’s only chance is to convince those party regulars that it is he, and not Hillary Clinton, who has the best chance of defeating John McCain in November.
Making matters critical is the fact that McCain can begin (and, in fact, has already begun) his campaign against the Democrats right now. He has nine fulls months to make his case to the American people that a Republican should once again be sent to the White House. Meanwhile, the Democrats may not have a candidate they can settle on until late August — which gives that candidate just two months to run hard against John McCain.
There are those who agree with Obama’s campaign organization that he is, in fact, the only one of the two potential nominees who can defeat John McCain. That is because Obama has more appeal to Independents across the board (and it is, some say, the Independents who will decide the next election), as well as even some Republicans who are disenchanted with the GOP for now and actually want to see a change of party leadership in Washington.
That group of voters is less likely, the line goes, to vote for Hillary Clinton, because she is said to be a highly polarizing political figure. (Put bluntly and simply, more people dislike her.)
So…we’ll watch as Obama takes Maryland, D.C., and perhaps even Virginia on Tuesday…I know that his staff’s strategic thinking is that if he can continue to sweep primary elections as he did on Saturday, his momentum alone could help him overcome Clinton’s early hard work in Ohio and/or Texas, and break up the All-Big-States-Go-To-Clinton gambit.
It’s going to be interesting to watch.
Meanwhile, has anybody found themselves as surprised as I have by the performance of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee? Here is a personable, gentle man of staunch conservative credentials who, had Mitt Romney gotten out of the race before, rather than after, Super Tuessday, could well have been this year’s Republican Presidential Nominee. As it stands now, he has little chance of overcoming the massive lead in delegate count of John McCain. McCain is very lucky that Mitt Romney stayed in as long as he did.
I do not personally agree with many of Mike Huckabee’s positions, but one thing I do find myself intrigued by is his call to completely abolish the Internal Revenue Service and replace the income tax with what he terms a Fair Tax — which is a consumption tax on everything (not just products, but services as well) that anyone pays for. I like the idea very much…and admit to not being an economist and probably, therefore, not understanding all of the deeper implications of such a move. But I am going to do some homework and look more closely at this key Huckabee idea.
NOW…WHAT ELSE TO WATCH…Huckabee said yesterday on one of the Sunday talk shows that he does not think he is one of John McCain’s choices to run for vice-president on a McCain ticket. The former governor said that he thinks many, many more people are now on McCain’s long list for that assignment, and that one of them is sure to accept before McCain gets to the name “Huckabee.”
At the same time, Huckabee was not conceding that McCain was even the presumptive GOP presidential nominee. He said he feels that the Republican Party believes in competition, that it brings out the best in us, and that he considers himself to still be competitive in the race for the nomination.
I don’t know who else that John McCain is currently thinking of as a VP candidate…but if McCain is truly NOT thinking of Mike Huckabee he’s got to be crazy. A McCain-Huckabee ticket would be very, very difficult to beat. True, McCain could find another conservative (he, himself, is certainly considered a “moderate” Republican) to run with him, but Huckabee is demonstrating at the ballot box (he picked up two more states on Saturday running against McCain) that he is the current darling of the far right in the GOP, and those are hard credentials to ignore.
And, speaking of Vice Presidential candidates, who would Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama choose, when one of them wins the Democratic nomination battle? I am betting that Clinton would choose Bill Richardson, and I am betting that Obama chooses…are you ready for this? …. Sen. Barbara Boxer of California.
Another long shot prediction. Hmmm….maybe I should have become a political pundit instead of a spiritual writer…
Tomorrow…the role that I see FAITH and HOPE playing in all of this.