He didn’t have to win the Pennsylvania primary, all he had to do was not lose it by double digits. But he couldn’t even do that. And so we see, once again, that Barack Obama just can’t seem to “close the deal.” And now what seemed like a “blessing” to the Democratic Party may turn out to be a curse.
What is happening here is polarization, plain and simple. Democrats back in February were talking about the incredible blessing of two such extraordinary candidates bringing the country to the brink of making history: a woman and a black man running for president, with either one seeming to stand a very good chance of winning the whole thing. Today, three months later, it’s starting to look like the most devisive thing that ever happened to the Democratic Party–threatening to take what looked like a sure and certain victory in November and turn it into defeat.
What’s going on here is that each of the key constituencies supporting these candidates — women for Clinton, blacks for Obama — have stuck out their upper lip and refused to give an inch to the other. Both want history to be made for their group, not the other.
White women are voting for Hillary strictly because she is a woman, and they have created a powerful voting force that has floated the candidate through yet another crucial primary, this one in Pennsylvania, giving her a huge 10-point victory just when she needed it. It never looked as if Obama could take the state, but it did look as if he might be closing the gap to the point where a meager Clinton win would be seen, in practical terms, as a loss. But never underestimate the power of a woman scorned. Females in Pennsylvania would be damned if they were going to let the men take away this chance to put a woman in the White House. They rallied behind Hillary Clinton in record numbers.
Blacks, both men and women, are voting for Obama strictly because he is black, and they have created a powerful voting force that has floated the candidate through the majority of primary and caucus states, giving him a national lead in the popular vote and in the committed-delegate count. It never looked as if Clinton could lose Pennsylvania, but it did look as if she might be losing her huge lead in the polls there, to the point where her candidacy would finally have to concede, in practical terms, that the race for the Democratic nomination was over. Blacks in Pennsylvania would be damned if they were going to let the white majority take away this chance to put a black in the White House. They rallied behind Barack Obama in record numbers. But it was not enough. Even winning an amazing 90% of the black vote could not bring Obama within 9 percentage points or less of Clinton in the final vote spread.
All Obama needed was to force Clinton into a single-digit victory in Pennsylvania — and he couldn’t do it. Not even by outspending Clinton 3-to-1 in the state.
So now Democrats have a curse on their hands. Actually, neither candidate can rally enough of the party faithful to their side to close the deal. It is not just Obama who can’t close — it’s Clinton also.
Hillary has the women, working class white men, and most folks over 50. Obama has the blacks, affluent white men. and most folks under 30. Those two groupings are now at a stalemate. And so here we go again, into more weeks of grueling primaries, the next ones in North Carolina and Indiana.
There is some question now in political circles whether Barack Obama may have peaked too soon. That is, whether Obamania has run its course, after all the months of spectacular campaign speeches that have carried him so far, and with the country now seeming ready to turn to a more practical choice in the well-known, good old reliable Clinton name.
Many in America would not be disappointed in a Billary Presidency. Two for the price of one, and all that…
Not that Hillary could not carry the load on her own. That isn’t the statement being made here. She most certainly could, in my opinion (and most people, even her opponents, agree). Yet the fact that her husband is a former president simply cannot be ignored. Nor should it be, for that matter. In the real world it’s a legitimate point to consider.
Obama might have done better in Pennsylvania, he might have achieved his hoped-for single-digit point spread, had he not made his “bitter” remark a couple of weeks ago. Saying that small town Americans were clinging to their views and votes on issues like guns and religion because they were bitter at having been left behind by a Washington political establishment on bread and butter issues, where their votes and views did not seem to matter, did nothing to endear Obama to small town America or to its working class.
So now we move on to North Carolina and Indiana, where it is Obama who must score convincing victories to grab the momentum back in this fight-to-the-finish primary season. Now it is he for whom it will not be good enough to simply win. He must win with confidence-building numbers or those Superdelegates may, indeed, turn to Hillary Clinton, seeing her as their only sure chance for victory in November over Republican John McCain.
And now a country which stood poised to make history by placing either a woman or a black man in the White House…may place neither.
AND A POST SCRIPT HERE…Did you hear the Hillary Clinton response to a question from ABC News about Iran? The New York Times reports today that Sen. Clinton “surprised some Democrats with a remark about Iran on ABC on Tuesday, when she broke with her practice of avoiding hypothetical questions and commented on a situation in which Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons.”
The Times quoted Sen. Clinton as follows…
“I want the Iranians to know that if I’m the president, we will attack Iran,” she said. “In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them.”
Well, then, that settles that, doesn’t it…? That certainly sends a signal that should feel good all around the world. No more beligerent Bush in the White House, no siree. Mrs. Clinton aims to bring about real change…
P.P.S. — Wow….judging by some of the Comments entered below, before I posted this Second Post Script…some people believe I was attempting to show my support for Sen. Clinton in my post, above. Wow….I was not, nor was I trying to “subtly” celebrate the defeat of Obama in Pennsylvania. Wow…it’s amazing to me how such conclusions could be drawn.
Let me set the record straight here. The above post was not meant to show support for Sen. Clinton. It was meant to point out that what seemed like such a blessing for the Democratic Party just a few short months ago is now starting to look like it could be a curse…simply because so many people in such huge numbers are voting on the basis of gender and race primarily.
No…to answer on respondent, below….I am not suggesting for even one second that every single black who votes for Obama does so simply because of race, and that they have no other reason. Never said that, never would. But when the vast, VAST majority of women polled say they voted for Clinton, and when 90% of blacks say in exit polls that they voted for Obama…are we going to actually sit here and deny that gender and racial voting is taking place? Of course it is, for heaven sake.
The sad part about some of the reaction, below, to my above post is that my post apparently did exactly the opposite of what I wanted it to do. I wanted it to point out the DANGER of voting based solely on gender or race, and how that was turning an historic blessing of a moment into what could wind up being a curse.
I was hoping that a few people might wake up and determine to vote in the remaining primaries based on the qualifications of the candidates as measured by their positions on the issues and their leadership abilities, NOT their gender or race.
So the very thing that one person in the Comments Section below accuses me of…racism…is exactly what I was speaking against.
Gosh….guess I’d better go back to my English Comp class and re-learn some communications arts…