Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of disability and death in the U.S., and new projections find that it might become more common in the next 30 years. In a recently released report, the American Heart Association says that 61 percent of U.S. adults will have some type of cardiovascular disease, or CVD, by 2050. This is particularly driven by a projected 184 million people with hypertension, or high blood pressure, which is expected to increase from 51.2 percent to 61 percent in 2025.

The association defines in its report, “Clinically, cardiovascular disease is identified as a number of specific conditions, including coronary heart disease (including heart attack), arrhythmias (including atrial fibrillation), valvular disease, congenital heart disease, heart failure, stroke and hypertension. However, high blood pressure is also known as a major risk factor contributing to both heart disease and stroke.” Where are other increases expected? Total CVD diagnoses, which include numbers for stroke but not high blood pressure, will increase from 11.3 percent to 15 percent or from 28 million to 45 million adults during the same time.

Stroke specifically will see the largest increase, according to the report, jumping from 3.9 percent to 6.4 percent, with the “total prevalence number nearly doubling from 10 million to almost 20 million adults.” Increases were also projected for coronary heart disease (from 7.8 percent to 9.2 percent) and heart failure (from 2.7 percent to 3.8 percent). While there is a projected decline in high cholesterol diagnoses, other risk factors like obesity and diabetes will also increase, from 43.1 percent to 60.6 percent and 16.3 percent to 26.8 percent, respectively. The report found that prevalence also varies by racial and ethnic groups.

For example, the increase in total projected numbers of people with CVD and poor health behaviors rose most among Hispanic adults and Asian populations, while Black adults are projected to have the highest prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and obesity. These disparities can be attributed to “individual, structural and systemic racism, as well as socioeconomic factors and access to care,” the report notes.