Since the mammoth abuse settlement last week in Los Angeles, there’s been a lot of finger-pointing and fist-shaking (usually directed toward the Cardinal Archbishop who heads the archdiocese.) Now, a political scientist on the op-ed pages of the city’s leading newspaper is suggesting that there’s nothing wrong with the Archdiocese of Los Angeles that can’t be fixed by a new cardinal who happens to be Hispanic:

It is chiefly the increasing arrival of Latinos that gives the church new potential as a political force in L.A. politics. Quite simply, as the Latino population grows, so does the Catholic population. According to figures kept by the archdiocese, which covers Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, there are 4,349,000 Catholics in a regional population of 11,258,000; about 70% of L.A. County’s Catholics are Latino, according to John Orr of the USC Center for Religion and Civic Culture.

Unions in California and the state Democratic Party have already rebuilt and reinvigorated themselves by incorporating Latinos as members and leaders. The Catholic Church could become a third leg of this progressive alliance because it strongly supports immigrant rights, a higher minimum wage and extending the city’s living wage to businesses that rely on immigrant labor. It is, of course, quite conservative on the issue of abortion and other social issues.

Yet, in contrast to the (Mayor) Riordan years, the church’s political influence today and in the future may be less dependent on its ties to political leaders. In fact, because of the clergy abuse scandal, many local politicians are likely to keep their distance from the church leadership. Despite that, the stance the church takes on public issues can be highly influential, especially if it squares with the needs and aspirations of its adherents. For many Catholics, as well as for many other Americans, religious faith is more direct, credible and immediate than politics.

A church with a social justice agenda in the context of a large and politically dynamic Latino population, coupled with a strong union movement, could make the Los Angeles Archdiocese one of the most important in the world. A generation of popular Latino political leaders, chief among them Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, today overshadows the church. But that could change if a dynamic Latino cardinal were someday named head of the archdiocese. Then Los Angeles, overlooked for much of the 20th century, would command the attention of the 21st century world.

A few people think that the next Cardinal Archbishop of New York should be Hispanic, as well. His seat, however, becomes vacant later this year, when he reaches the mandatory retirement age of 75. Mahony is a different story. He has several years before reaching retirement age. And, for some reason, popes are reluctant to transfer or reassign Cardinal Archbishops, even those embroiled in scandals like the one in L.A. It took a massive public outcry to force Boston’s Cardinal Law to resign five years ago. It remains to be seen if there will be a similar drumbeat for Mahony’s head — or if this pope will take matters into his own hands.

Image: Our Lady of Guadalupe mural in East Los Angeles