The man who won the Iowa caucus appears to have a bit of a Catholic problem, according to this interesting analysis in the blogosphere. A color coded map at the link tells the stark story:
This suggests that Huckabee did very poorly among Catholics. Unfortunately, the entrance poll of caucus-goers only asked about born-again or evangelical status, not denomination. A quick regression of the county-level data backs up what the maps suggest; Huckabee did best among evangelicals in rural areas with lots of religious adherents. On the other hand, he did poorly among Catholics. This indicates that he will have an increasingly tough time in states without a large evangelical population and particularly in states with large Catholic populations.
Matthew Yglesias, at the Atlantic, puts it this way:
One thinks, traditionally, of white Catholics as the core bloc of culturally traditionalist voters with some leanings in the direction of economic populism. Any nationally successful coalition founded on the sort of Christian Democratic approach that Huckabee gestures at in his more appealing moments would need to have Catholic voters at its heart, not pushed out to the margins.
For his part, the candidate is still under the distinct impression that his message is being embraced by the Catholic faithful, according to this report from New Hampshire:
While campaigning in New Hampshire — where he is hoping for a solid third place finish in the state’s Tuesday primary — Huckabee told reporters on the bus on Monday that he felt his broad message resonated with many Catholics.
“Catholics were a major source of support for me in Arkansas. And they have been nationally. And it’s not only because of the pro-life and pro-family issues,” he said, refering to his opposition to abortion rights and gay marriage.
“I certainly believe that Catholics are right about talking about poverty, disease and hunger. Things I talk about … I think a lot of evengelicals have not talked enough about it quite frankly,” he said.
Huckabee’s remarks point to a strategy that sees a broader coalition than the old “Religious Right” — one that unites not only socially conservative Catholics and evengelicals but also those who see Biblical sanction for helping the poor.
Huckabee said that much of his campaign staff was Roman Catholic — so much so that when he looked at the list last August he said he thought “we need some Baptists in this bunch here.”
He also said that he believed that he was “one of the few people who as a Baptist pastor actually spoke in Catholic churches. My church used to have a joint service with a Catholic, Methodist and Presbyterian Church twice a year.”