Here’s the latest from the crossroads of faith, media & culture: 01/22/24

From the Washington Post (following the Iowa Caucus): Republican front-runner Donald Trump added Iowa’s most religious regions to his strongholds in Monday’s caucuses. He combined religious areas with the state’s lower-income and less educated counties to pull a majority of all caucus voters, more than double what he earned eight years ago…Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was the clear runner-up in most counties that strongly preferred Trump. Of the seven counties where Trump won more than 70 percent, DeSantis was the second choice in six of them. These were largely small, rural counties like Wapello and Appanoose in the state’s southeast that voted for Trump in the 2016 primary, as well. However, DeSantis came the closest to winning in larger evangelical counties like Sioux, which Cruz dominated in 2016.

What went wrong? I’ll be honest. I was really hoping that Ron DeSantis would pull out a victory as I think it’s time America take a break from electing presidents that could pass for cartoon characters. IMHO, the Florida governor comes off as a man of sincere moral conviction, common sense, competence and accomplishment. He volunteered for the military after 9/11 which speaks well of him. Plus, he’s proven to be a very capable governor who is willing to stand up for kids and against a giant corporation that seemed to think it was running the state’s education system. I really like the man – but, in the end, he really had no choice to call it quits – at least for this presidential cycle.

So, again, what went wrong? Here’s my shortlist.

1. Evangelicals did not turn out for him in large enough number in Iowa. Personally, I think his passage of a six-week abortion law in Florida actually may have hurt him with the pivotal voting bloc that finally sees an opportunity to reduce abortions across America but (with good reason) fears that pushing for total victory risks losing the gains that have been made. Donald Trump understands that. So does Nikki Haley. I don’t doubt DeSantis’ sincerity on the issue but I do think overreaching may have been a misstep not just for his own political campaign but for the overall cause of reducing abortion in the future. Like it or not, legal abortion is a potent issue for the left and, if they leverage it to capture the three branches of government, the pro-life gains that have been made are likely to be more than reversed. I continue to maintain that the only way to move forward on the issue in a sustainable way is to find a path that focuses on education and alternatives over punishment.

2. Attacking Trump on policy was not a good strategy. The reason why a lot of people (including myself) were enthusiastically supportive of DeSantis is because they saw him as bringing the former president’s policies forward without the baggage of his over-the-top personality and legal baggage. While drawing some distinctions regarding covid was probably fine, most conservative voters give Trump high marks on the economy, the border, cultural issues and foreign policy. Criticizing him on those points wasn’t only counter-productive, it was giving into Democrat and corporate media manipulation. Both groups successfully convinced DeSantis (and other candidates as well) that they had to draw distinctions between themselves on Trump on policy – as both groups are more than happy to have Republicans shooting their verbal darts at each other rather than focusing on President Biden‘s role in making virtually everything he touches worse. A better argument for DeSantis (and the other candidates) would have been that he’d continue most of President Trump’s policies (i.e. fewer regulations, lower taxes, strong border, finding consensus on abortion, opposition to Woke ideology, election integrity, support for law and order and peace through strength) but would do so without needless drama.

3. Lawfare. From The Atlantic: Not long ago, the idea that a former president—or major-party presidential nominee—would face serious legal jeopardy was nearly unthinkable. Today, merely keeping track of the many cases against Donald Trump requires a law degree, a great deal of attention, or both.

In all, Trump faces 91 felony counts across two state courts and two different federal districts, any of which could potentially produce a prison sentence. He’s also dealing with a civil suit in New York that could force drastic changes to his business empire, including closing down its operations in his home state. Meanwhile, he is the leading Republican candidate in the race to become the next president—though lawsuits in several states seek to have him disqualified from the presidency. If the criminal and civil cases unfold with any reasonable timeliness, he could be in the heat of the campaign trail at the same time that his legal fate is being decided.

All that’s presented as evidence that Trump, the supposed insurrectionist, shouldn’t be allowed to even run for the presidency – let alone actually win it. Others, however, see the legal onslaught as an indication that the so-called Deep State may be more real than we ever imagined – and with the help of a compliant corporate media is willing to do just about anything to stop a man they see as a threat to their power. That’s enough to draw people who may not have otherwise been fans of Trump to his defense. How better to express their resistance to what they see as a virtual shredding of the U.S. Constitution than voting for the man the system is working overtime to crush? The steamroller effect of that dynamic was just too much for the DeSantis campaign to overcome.

Then, of course, there’s the idea that such an impact on the Republican primaries was anticipated and even counted on by the Democrats who see an angry and divided electorate as their best path to maintaining power. Prediction: After Trump secures the nomination don’t be surprised to see President Biden switched out by the Democratic Party power brokers and replaced by a newer, YOUNGER, shinier candidate of their (not the voters’) choosing. That could be Michelle Obama or perhaps someone the average voter has never even heard of. In either event, we’ll be told that it’s time to turn the generational page and move on from the divides of the past. That argument will actually have a lot of appeal to a lot of voters. The replacement candidate may very well win the election – and the failed and unpopular policies of the Biden Administration will continue unabated. At least that’s one possibility.

The message to voters? Vote your conscience but stay awake and don’t be manipulated.

John W. Kennedy is a writer, producer and media development consultant specializing in television and movie projects that uphold positive timeless values, including trust in God.