Gallup’s new poll reporting that Americans are more likely to be deterred from supporting John McCain over his association with George W. Bush than to be dissuaded from backing Barack Obama over Jeremiah Wright has been getting lots of attention in the blogosphere these last few days, particularly among Obama boosters.

But Gallup’s own analysis notes that digging deeper into the numbers reveals worse news for Obama than for McCain:

[T]he data suggest that Wright may be more detrimental to Obama’s candidacy than Bush is to McCain’s. Nearly one-fifth of Democrats, 19%, say they are less likely to vote for Obama because of his ties to Wright (only 2% say the Wright-Obama connection increases their odds of voting for Obama). Meanwhile, just 10% of Republicans say they are less likely to vote for McCain because of his association with Bush; about the same percentage (12%) say this relationship makes them more likely to vote for McCain.

But it’s also worth noting that more Democrats report being less likely to support McCain because of his Bush connection (64 percent) than Republicans who report Wright-inspired reluctance over Obama (50 percent). That’s especially important because both candidates claim crossover appeal.
Ergo, what would have been more helpful is a poll of independent voters.

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