Last night the remaining Idols – Kris Allen, Danny Gokey and Adam Lambert – sang their little hearts out, with both a personal song choice and a judge’s song choice. All three knocked their personal choices out of the park, but were a little iffy on the judges’ choices, proving that they know their talents better than the judges.
The judges made a clear and blatant pitch for Adam, Simon going so far as to ask people to vote for Adam.
A few weeks ago I went out on a limb and predicted Kris Allen to win the competition. I thought I’d explain my thoughts a little more and then we’ll see tonight if I’m right.

1) I think the judges’ blatant bias may work against Adam tonight. Fans have proven again and again that they’ll vote for another contestant just to prove the judges wrong.
2) Adam probably isn’t winning any new fans. Yes, he’s extremely talented, but unless you like his style of rock music, you probably aren’t going to pick up the phone and vote.
3) Adam has been in the bottom three; but it’s likely he picked up Allison’s voters after she was sent home last week.
4) I think Kris has been the underdog in this competition, and I think he’s going to make it through tonight. In fact, I think they’ll call him first and let the audience sweat out whether Danny or Adam is through while we sit through Katy Perry singing.
5) I think that Kris has a better chance of winning than the other contestants, and here’s why:
If it comes down to an Adam/Kris finale, Kris picks up Danny’s votes and wins.
If it’s a Danny/Kris finale, (which is still a possibility), Kris picks up Adam’s votes and wins
If it’s a Danny/Adam finale they split Kris’ votes and Adam wins.
Based on some informal reader polling I’ve done, I think Danny and Adam both have very, very strong fan bases that are so different that neither’s fans will vote for the other. Kris, on the other hand, appeals to both fan bases. So Kris really has the edge.
But we’ll see tonight!
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