Disney’s upcoming live-action film “Snow White” has become arguably the most controversial release of 2025.

The project has faced challenges including reshoots, script changes, and poorly received trailers, not to mention a slew of controversial statements from the film’s star, Rachel Zegler. Zegler has repeatedly criticized her own movie, calling the original “Snow White” outdated and irrelevant and describing its love story as weird.

This is the same “Snow White” that established Disney as a leader in family entertainment and the same one that earned Walt Disney an honorary Oscar in 1939. Following the 2024 election, Zegler launched a tirade against Donald Trump on social media, which she later had to apologize for.

It’s not just Zegler causing issues; leaked set photos in 2023 quickly became a source of ridicule online. Instead of the classic seven dwarfs, Disney had cast a group that looked like modern, diverse Portland hipsters. The backlash was so intense that Disney decided to delay the film in order to redesign the dwarfs as CGI characters. However, based on pre-release box office predictions, this move is unlikely to improve the situation.

According to a report from Deadline Hollywood, box office tracking firm Quorum indicates that “Snow White” could bring in around $63-$65 million during its opening weekend. For comparison, Angelina Jolie’s “Maleficent” had an opening of about $70 million back in 2014. Adjusted for inflation, that $70 million would be more than $92 million today.

This means “Snow White” is projected to earn roughly $30 million less than “Maleficent.” This is even more concerning given the film’s budget.

By November 2024, Disney acknowledged that the production budget had soared to almost $270 million. This amount doesn’t include marketing expenses, which can often double the cost. Even a conservative estimate of $150 million for marketing would bring the total expenditure to around $420 million. To make a profit, a movie generally needs to earn twice its cost, meaning Disney would require an opening weekend of at least $120 million to even begin hoping for profitability.

Yet, the current projections suggest only half of that.

Even these projections may be overly optimistic. Tracking companies base box office estimates on social media impressions, public awareness, follower counts, and trailer views. However, this doesn’t guarantee that these impressions are positive or that they will convert into ticket sales. According to Quorum, one of the demographics with the highest awareness is men under 35. However, the awareness in this group likely stems from the negative publicity the film has garnered from YouTube reviewers like The Critical Drinker.

In the best-case scenario, “Snow White” will fall significantly short of the opening weekend revenue Disney needs for the film to be profitable. In the worst-case scenario, it might not even reach half of that target.