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Politics, like economics, is rooted in psychology. That is a truism which no one can overcome with something as unpsycholgical as facts. When people are angry, confused, hopeless, and afraid, they fall back upon emotions to trump the facts, and then new realities are born. I think that’s the biggest threat to President Obama now,…

When history decides to shift, people are always looking in the wrong direction. That’s what makes so-called tipping points so unsettling — the experts miss them so often. In the case of Egypt, nobody expected peaceful popular uprisings to topple Mubarak. The Arab world was focused on the dangers of Iran or the Muslim Brotherhood,…

Is the Arab world headed for chaos or democracy? The U.S. has been wrong so many times, it’s hard to know who to trust in these matters. But some trends are clear, at least. Usually societies that enjoy economic growth also show increased happiness. In the U.S. we’ve seen that equation hold true, especially in…

In America and in Egypt, should a majority religion inspire political life? How will Islam play a role in the struggles for democracy happening now in Egypt and other parts of the Muslim world? All societies present an entangled mesh of values, with many contradictions that never get sorted out. In America, religion is a…
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