I’ve done my best to convince myself that the media are overswarming this State of the Union address, and I keep saying to myself, “Good grief, this is just one year in.” But the facts keep defeating that thought: with elections looming this Fall, with the defeat of a Democrat in Massachusetts — the only State with a comparable health care plan — and with the news frenzy over what the polls are saying, we have to own up to a reality: This speech really matters, and what matters most for me is that he has to gain the confidence of those who are on the fence. Diehard Dems are with him no matter what; diehard GOP aren’t with him. But can he convince the rest?