The blogosphere is filled with them: predictions about the outcome of Tuesday’s election.  Although a Google search indicates there are even ones made by monkeys, a quick examination of the first few hits indicates this could be a put on.

Look, Jay, since no trees die in cyberspace, I’m going to add to the volume.  I’ve been predicting elections for decades but other than sharing them with families and pets I’ve never had any place to post them publicly–until now.

These sentiments are not endorsements; they are projections.  I go where the best intelligence data and commonsense I have takes me.  I predicted that George Bush would defeat John Kerry in 2004 (but only my family and dog can verify even that.)  So, here goes.

The Presidency: Although not a “blowout”, Obama will defeat McCain. McCain will only get 174 electoral votes.  These include the “sure things” (AK, ID, AL, KY, NE, LA, MS, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY, AR, SD, WV) and the “swing states” of North Dakota, Indiana, Arizona, Montana and Georgia.  Obama therefore wins with pickups of Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Missouri, Virginia and Florida along with his “sure things”.

In the Senate, Democrats lose no incumbent seats.  I believe they will pick up “open” or currently Republican seats in Alaska, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Oregon and North Carolina.  They will NOT get the “veto proof” 60 seats, though, failing to gain seats in Mississippi, Minnesota, Georgia, or Kentucky.  (Minnesota could still fool us if more Barkley voters switch to Franken at the last minute.)

In the House, even with the retirement of 29 Republicans, Democrats don’t look to me like they will pick up as many seats as many expect.  I’d say a Democratic pickup of 24 seats is likely.

On the initiative front, I can and do “take sides”.  It is my hope that California, Arizona and Florida reject constitutional amendments to define marriage as one man and one woman and I’d be shocked if at least two of those states don’t block the effort.  I hope and believe that South Dakota and California voters will reject anti-reproductive choice measures masquerading as “pro-family” choices.  I also trust the voters of Connecticut will reject the call for a constitutional convention.