Steve Waldman has been breaking down the voter numbers by religious affiliation:
Weekly Churchgoers vs. Occasionals
One thing that puzzles me about these numbers: Obama’s progress among Catholics is with those who don’t attend mass weekly. But among Protestants, he improved among those who do attend weekly.
One possible theory: abortion. Mass-attending Catholics are more likely to care about abortion than those who go less regularly. Protestant weekly attenders, on the other hand, include Mainline Protestants that are not necessarily pro-life.
But that’s just a theory. Based on very preliminary exit polls.
Obama Winning Jews Overwhelmingly
Early in the campaign, it looked like Obama would do worse among Jews than any Democrat in decades. Early exit polls indicate that instead Obama is actually doing better than John Kerry
Obama is winning 80%-18%. Kerry beat Bush 74%-25%
A Few More Obamagelicals
Barack Obama had made a major effort to win white evangelicals. For several months, it looked as if his efforts were for naught.
But the early exit polls show that Obama did make some progress. Bush beat Kerry 78%-21% in 2004. So far, McCain’s beating Obama 72%-26%
Catholic Shift to Obama
The rap on Obama during the primaries was that he couldn’t win because he struggled with Catholics. Apparently, he got past that. Early exit polls indicate he won 54% of the Catholic vote compared to 45% for John McCain. George W. Bush won the Catholic vote 52%-46%.
He also improved among white Catholics, according to the early exit polls. Bush got 56%-43% As of now, McCain lead by just 51%-49%
This was despite an aggressive push by more than 50 Bishops to encourage Catholics to focus on abortion as the central issue.
The God Gap Narrows
For several elections, Republicans have dominated among the most religious and Democrats among the secular.
Based on the first wave of exit polls, Obama has narrowed the God Gap considerably, dramatically improving on John Kerry’s 2004 performance among those who attend church frequently.
Bush beat Kerry among weekly church-goers by 61%-39%. McCain is beating Obama 54%-44%
Another key group is the Sorta Religious. Those who attend a few times a month or a few times a year. Among those who attend a few times a month, went for Bush 50%-49%. Obama is winning this group, 52%-47%, according to the first wave of exit polls.
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