According to the Iraq PM (but what does he know):

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki proclaimed on Friday that Al-Qaeda had been routed in Baghdad thanks to a security plan launched a year ago, and would soon be defeated throughout the country.
“Thank God, we destroyed the cells of Al-Qaeda. They have been chased out of Baghdad and this has opened the way for their defeat throughout Iraq,” Maliki said at a ceremony marking the launch on February 14 last year of the Baghdad security plan, known as Operation Fardh al-Qanoon (Imposing Law).
“Today our forces are locked in battle against outlaws in Nineveh and we are chasing them,” he added, referring to the northern province where Iraqi officials say Al-Qaeda has regrouped after fleeing Baghdad.
Maliki on January 25 announced a “decisive battle” against Al-Qaeda in Nineveh province, and sent troop and police reinforcements to the provincial capital Mosul, which the US military says is the last urban stronghold of Al-Qaeda in Iraq.

So, when does Pelosi, et al. say that the surge is working? Probably when President Obama says this: “Now that the surge has worked, it’s time to bring our troops home.”
BTW, the fact that they are now using more women for suicide bombing demonstrates the success of the surge.