From a Daily Kos poll, the Democrats are going to have a problem in 2010:

Voter Intensity: Definitely + Probably Voting/Not Likely + Not Voting
Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: 56/40

The blogger concludes that these numbers (as well as these) indicate that the Democrats have to pass “legitimate health care reform.”
I think that may only be half the problem the Democrats are facing, they could pass a health care bill and still have their base sit it out because of the lack of job growth. In all of the polls I’ve seen the number one issue for voters is the economy. Not only do the Democrats face the wrath of their own base but that of the Independents as well.
And when the details of the plan are widely available (don’t think the Republicans are stupid enough not to make this a huge issue in 2010) and the public realizes that they will be paying taxes next year for benefits that will not begin for 3 years, will be paying higher premiums than they are now (the taxes on medical devices alone are going to drive up health care costs) and that seniors will be getting their benefits cut, the Democrats will realize what it means to tick off those who were happy with their health care (check out this poll as well) before they messed with it.
And not even their base is happy with this bill, they view it as watered down, lacking any true reform (which they see as single payer). They expected more from having a filibuster proof majority in the Senate. Why would anyone think its passage would fire up the base? And if they get it without the public option? I would hate to see the bloodbath in the primaries (actually, I’m looking forward to the bloodbath in the primaries :-).