Oil industry expert Matt Simmons makes a pretty disturbing case for why the leak BP is showing on its video could not be the real leak — which he argues from the evidence is far worse than what they’re letting on. Watch:

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Meanwhile, the WaPo reports that a group of scientists is saying that the amount of oil spilled is far, far worse than we’ve been told. On the bright side, BP preliminarily reports that the top-kill maneuver has at least temporarily stopped the oil flow. I hope it’s true, but I don’t have a lot of faith in the word of this company. Read Favog’s emotional lament for what has been done to his home state.UPDATE: Reader Jason in Dallas is looking at the live video feed from the hole, and says, “It doesn’t look plugged to me.”