The ABCNews poll is a bit “out there” in projecting a nine point lead for Obama. But putting aside the overall horserace number, two stats jump out at me.
Yes, a lot of this is driven by the economy but there’s been a stunning change in just two weeks on the question of who is “more honest and trustworthy.” Just two weeks ago, McCain led on that question 44%-38%; now Obama leads 47%-36%. That would seem to indicate that McCain’s campaign ads backfired.
Second, white Catholics have shifted massively. Two weeks ago, they favored McCain 57%-38%. Now they favor Obama 47%-46%. As a point of reference, George Bush beat John Kerry among white Catholics 56%-43%.
A lot of this is simply about the economy — and if they shifted this much in one direction this fast, they can easily go back the other way before the election — but, as I argue here, there may be some more fundamental shifts going on among Catholic voters – even among the most devout.
UPDATE: This new poll from NBC and the Wall Street Journal has a much closer race, with the white Catholic vote sticking with McCain.