As Mark Silk and I have been carping on, a key trend appears to be that Obama is doing much better with evangelicals in the rust belt states than in the south and west.
And this just in…
In Indiana, according to a new Indianapolis Star poll, McCain is beating Obama among white evangelicals 57%-33%. Sounds good for McCain but it’s actually terrible news. In 2004, they backed Bush 77%-22%. This helps explain why Obama has pulled even with McCain, where has Bush trounced Kerry. Mark Silk explains:

Evangelicals constitute 35 percent of the Hoosier vote, so their 31-point shift toward Obama represents about half the total shift in the partisan breakdown from 2004 to now. In other words, evangelicals in Indiana seem to be shifting disproportionately toward Obama.

Meanwhile, Obama is NOT doing well among Florida’s evangelicals. (72%-21% according to Quinnipiac’s latest), and is doing well in Ohio (61%-33%) and Pennsylvania (62%-31%).