Michael Novak on NRO

People say that Catholics in America vote pretty much like other citizens — but the people who say that usually lose the Catholic vote. A people’s historical experience blows like a wind against snowflakes, driving enough of them now to the right, now to the left, to make a big difference in the final tally. There are two reasons why this is predominantly true of voters who happen to be Catholic.

First, Catholics tend to vote with higher regularity than anybody else but Jews. (In Chicago, some have been known to vote more than once, and in Boston some have voted after death, they enjoy voting so much). But 3 to 10 percent of this higher total vote tend to switch sides in presidential and senatorial (i.e., statewide) elections, sometimes changing for a Democrat, sometimes for a Republican. And these switchers are the most meaningful of voters, for their votes in effect count twice — taking a vote out of the column they last voted under, and putting that vote in the other column this time. If you can get a switch voter to vote for you this time, your opposition has to find two votes to make up for that one.