Maybe not. From the Campaign Journal at the New Republic.

I was at a conference on religion and politics sponsored by the Ethics and Public Policy Center for the last couple of days. One of the best presentations was by John Green, a political scientist at the University of Akron. He released preliminary results of his quadrennial survey on religious affiliation and political views. The poll is based on 3,500 interviews taken during March and April. The final results will be publicly released later this month.

..The second religious group the White House has aggressively courted is Catholics. Green’s data has bad new for Bush on this front. The survey divides Catholics up by their religiosity. “Traditionalist Catholics” are pro-Bush, while “Modernist Catholics” are pro-Kerry. The group that is up for grabs is what Green calls “Centrist Catholics,” who represent eight percent of the American electorate. Kerry is beating Bush among Centrist Catholics 45 percent to 41 percent. (Nader is at five percent and undecideds are at nine percent, and Kerry, of course, has more potential to consolidate those voters than Bush does.) Green’s data suggests that four years of an administration-wide effort to court Catholics has produced no gains for Bush. Green also pointed out that his interviews were conducted before the Abu Ghraib scandal, an issue, along with the war in general, that is likely to cost Bush even more support among Centrist Catholics