Oscar Nominations: Biggest Surprises and Closest Races

What happened to the nominations for best animated film?

Other than the nomination of front-runner "Rango," the winner of the key preliminary awards, this category is all shockers.

Animation award perennials Disney and Pixar are not on the list. While I, too, was diisappointed by the sequel to "Cars," I thought the old-school hand-drawn animation of "Winnie the Pooh" was gorgeous and well deserving of a nomination. My top animated film of the year, "Rio," was also overlooked. Another unexpected omission from the list was Steven Spielberg's first animated film, "The Adventures of Tintin." Instead, the Academy nominated the lackluster "Puss in Boots" and two movies that have not yet been released in the United States, "Chico and Rita" and "A Cat in Paris."

When will performance capture get some recognition?

Many people hoped that this would be the year the brilliant Andy Serkis would get nominated. He is a fine actor on his own (he played Jennifer Garner's boss in "13 Going on 30"), but it is his pioneering work as a performance capture artist that merits Oscar consideration.

His acting (that is the right term) this year as Caesar in "Rise of Planet of the Apes" was masterful. Technology took his movements and expressions and turned them into a chimp character who made us understand and even root for him over the humans, but it was his performance that made the character so electrifying and so moving.

Who will win Best Supporting Actress?

As usual, the toughest calls are in the supporting categories. Every one of the nominated actresses gave Oscar-worthy performances and I could easily name another five who should have been included. For best supporting actress, there is a chance that the two newcomers nominated for "The Help," Jessican Chastain and Octavia Spencer, could split the vote. Chastain could have filled the category herslf, with stunning work in "Tree of Life," "Take Shelter," and "The Debt" in 2011. I'd love to see Melissa McCarthy win - she was the best part of "Bridesmaids." But I will be very happy if it goes to Spencer, who inspired the character she played and still had to fight to be cast in the part.

Which octogenarian will win Best Supporting Actor?

As with the supporting actresses this is a close race, but it looks like it will be between two nominees who were both born in 1929, with decades of outstanding work in iconic films.

Christopher Plummer starred in "The Sound of Music" and played the bad guy in "Up." His nomination is for "Beginners," playing a man who publicly acknowledges he is gay for the first time in his 70's, in a story based on the experiences of writer/director Michael Mills.

Max von Sydow has appeared in movies directed by Ingmar Bergman and Woody Allen. He played Jesus in "The Greatest Story Ever Told" and the devil in "The Soldier's Tale." In "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," he plays a man so traumatized he cannot speak and yet the eloquence of his performance is profoundly moving.

Who will win Best Director?

This year's nominees include some of the greatest directors in film history, with a record of astounding masterpieces. Martin Scorcese is nominated for "Hugo," his first 3D film and his first movie suitable for families. There is no more passionate film fan than Scorcese, and this is a love letter to the movies sure to capture the hearts of the movie-lovers that make up the Academy. The voters may find themselves leaning toward the beautiful but mystifying "Tree of Life." Terrence Malick makes very few films but he is a highly respected auteur. Or, they could be captivated by the bittersweet charm of "Midnight in Paris," with a welcome return to great film-making from Woody Allen. But I am guessing they will vote for newcomer Michel Hazavanicius for his daring in making a black and white sound film, "The Artist," so compelling for contemporary audiences.

What will win Best Picture?

The Academy has revised its rules yet again and through some arcane formula there are nine nominees this year: "The Artist," "The Descendants," "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close," "Hugo," "Midnight in Paris," "The Help," "Moneyball," "War Horse," and "The Tree of Life." They include a true story, historical fiction, an intimate family tragedy with comic overtones, an epic story of war, and a mystifying drama that includes all of those elements plus everything form the birth of the cosmos to something that could be the end of days or perhaps just the mediations of a middle-aged man about his childhood. All are pretty worthy candidates. My prediction for the winner is the one that reminded us most powerfully of what cinematic storytelling can be: "The Artist."

Who will win Best Costume Design?

Costume design is an essential element of character and story-telling in every movie, so every year I regret that the Oscar voters seem to think that costume design means pretty dresses and period clothing. Once again, all the nominated films are historical, with all but one taking place at least a century ago. The awful film "Anonymous" did have some great Shakespearian-era costumes and Madonna's little-seen "W.E." was about real-life fashion icons the Duke and Duchess of Windsor. The silent film-era glamour of "The Artist," beautifully brought to life by the very talented Mark Bridges ("There Will Be Blood," "I Heart Huckabees," "Punch Drunk Love") despite the challenges of working in black and white, is the front runner.